A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
